Bitcoin has slipped back into a bearish pattern that feels eerily familiar to early 2022. While the price sits above its true market mean, a significant portion of the supply is now underwater, and demand across ETFs, spot, and futures is waning.

What Happened

Glassnode’s on‑chain analysis shows that Bitcoin’s price is above the true market mean but the market structure mirrors Q1 2022. More than 25 % of the supply sits below the mean, indicating a potential for further corrections.

Why It Matters for Bitcoin

When a large share of the supply is underwater, the market is primed for a downward spiral. Weak demand in ETFs, spot, and futures, combined with compressed options volatility, suggests that the price could not sustain levels beyond the $96 k‑$106 k range.

U.S. Angle

  • ETF demand is slowing as new U.S. spot‑Bitcoin ETFs face regulatory scrutiny from the SEC.
  • Federal Reserve rate hikes and persistent inflationary pressure keep the dollar strong, tightening risk‑on sentiment.
  • U.S. dollar strength and CPI data influence institutional appetite for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

What to Watch Next

  • Price action around the $96 k‑$106 k support zone.
  • ETF trading volumes and any SEC announcements.
  • Options implied volatility and any sudden spikes.
  • Macro data releases (CPI, Fed minutes) that could shift risk appetite.

Start Here

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Source

Glassnode, The Week Onchain – Week 48 2025