Bitcoin’s realized market cap has stubbornly stayed above $1 trillion, a record high that challenges the expected four‑year bull cycle. Even as sentiment skews toward extreme fear, the data suggests a different narrative for the cryptocurrency’s long‑term trajectory.

What Happened

The realized cap represents the market value of Bitcoin at the price it last moved, offering a snapshot of the total value held by all holders. On December 18, the metric topped $1 trillion for the first time, surpassing the $950 billion peak seen at the end of 2023.

Why It Matters for Bitcoin

Breaking the $1 trillion threshold signals that a large portion of holders are still willing to hold Bitcoin at higher valuations. It also raises questions about the validity of the traditional four‑year cycle model that has guided many investors.

Market Impact

Despite the record, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively flat, reflecting the extreme fear sentiment (index 16). Institutional interest appears steady, with several ETF filings still pending regulatory approval.

What to Watch Next

  • Upcoming macro data releases that could influence risk appetite.
  • Regulatory developments in the U.S. and EU, especially regarding ETF approvals.
  • Potential price reactions to the realized cap milestone in the next 30‑60 days.
  • Technological updates such as Taproot activation and network upgrades.

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Source

CoinDesk